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Irregular Economic Growth in the World Economy: Fluctuations of Ergodic Distributions through a Markov Chain Model
https://agi.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/216
https://agi.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/21630349f5d-65db-4cd3-80df-6e7d29df5b2a
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
WP2022-03 (509.9 kB)
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| Item type | ワーキングペーパー/Working Paper(1) | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2022-02-28 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | Irregular Economic Growth in the World Economy: Fluctuations of Ergodic Distributions through a Markov Chain Model | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題 | Convergence | |||||||||||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題 | World Economy | |||||||||||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題 | Markov Chain | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | working paper | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 著者 |
ドミンゲス, アルバロ
× ドミンゲス, アルバロ
× 坂本, 博
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| 抄録 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | We reexamine the convergence hypothesis of economic growth. Traditionally, it was analyzed using econometric methods, although estimating long-term economic fluctuations with a linear model is not always ideal. We thus employ a Markov chain stochastic model that divides the logarithmic value of relative income, comparing each country's GDP per capita with the average, into several ranks in descending order of income. Using the most recent data, we total the time-series changes of the income states in each sample, and represent them through probabilities. We observe the changing ergodic distribution and show that the world economy is not growing monotonously, and proceed to correct the population size of each country for rank changes. The transition probability matrix is re-estimated by applying population weights to changes in the income states of each country. When there is no population weighting, the model shows that the world economy may be divided into two peaks as before. However, when using population weights, the model yields more optimistic results. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
en : AGI Working Paper Series 巻 2022-03, p. 1-18, 発行日 2022-02 |
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| 著者版フラグ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | NA | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| JEL分類コード | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 主題 | JEL classification: C49, D39, O50, R11 | |||||||||||||||||||||
